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画风突变,特朗普放软话,贸易战以和为贵?

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月17日 01:04:17
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(美)(国)(贸)(易)(代)(表)(办)(公)(室)(3日)(依)(据)(“301调)(查)(”结)(果)(公)(布)(拟)(加)(征)(关)(税)(的)(中)(国)(商)(品)(清)(单)(,涉)(及)(每)(年)(从)(中)(国)(进)(口)(的)(价)(值)(约)(500亿)(美)(元)(商)(品)(。4月)(4日)(电)(美)(国)(总)(统)(特)(朗)(普)(当)(地)(时)(间)(4日)(发)(布)(推)(特)(称)(,“我)(们)(没)(有)(和)(中)(国)(打)(贸)(易)(战)(,这)(场)(战)(争)(多)(年)(前)(就)(被)(当)(时)(代)(表)(美)(国)(的)(那)(些)(愚)(蠢)(无)(能)(的)(人)(打)(输)(了)(。现)(在)(我)(们)(一)(年)(有)(5000亿)(美)(元)(的)(贸)(易)(逆)(差)(,另)(有)(3000亿)(美)(元)(知)(识)(产)(权)(被)(窃)(。我)(们)(不)(能)(让)(这)(一)(切)(继)(续)(!”
然)(而)(4月)(6日)(,白)(宫)(就)(发)(布)(特)(朗)(普)(提)(议)(向)(价)(值)(1000亿)(美)(元)(的)(中)(国)(进)(口)(商)(品)(加)(征)(更)(多)(的)(关)(税)(。中)(国)(立)(刻)(怼)(回)(去)((新)(华)(社)():“你)(加)(码)(,我)(何)(惧)(?尔)(欲)(战)(,我)(奉)(陪)(。——贸)(易)(战)(3.0。
“演)(出)(效)(果)(”直)(接)(反)(应)(到)(股)(市)(上)(
3月)(23日)(,特)(朗)(普)(宣)(布)(对)(华)(征)(收)(关)(税)(的)(当)(天)(,道)(指)(就)(大)(跌)(近)(3%,1.2万)(亿)(美)(元)(的)(市)(值)(没)(了)(。而)(4月)(1日)(,中)(国)(宣)(布)(对)(美)(产)(品)(加)(征)(关)(税)(之)(后)(,道)(指)(周)(一)(又)(大)(跌)(了)(2%,又)(是)(一)(个)(8000亿)(美)(元)(没)(了)(。为)(了)(减)(少)(中)(国)(1000亿)(美)(元)(的)(顺)(差)(,美)(国)(的)(代)(价)(,可)(能)(是)(损)(失)(12万)(亿)(美)(元)(的)(市)(值)(。这)(还)(是)(只)(是)(股)(市)(,而)(股)(市)(则)(有)(可)(能)(进)(一)(步)(触)(发)(美)(国)(的)(地)(产)(下)(跌)(。美)(国)(优)(先)(”的)(思)(维)(之)(下)(,特)(朗)(普)(制)(造)(了)(一)(个)(越)(来)(越)(紧)(缩)(的)(世)(界)(,贸)(易)(战)(不)(会)(是)(单)(方)(面)(的)(,而)(是)(一)(个)(螺)(旋)(上)(升)(的)(博)(弈)(过)(程)(,带)(来)(的)(结)(果)(就)(是)(市)(场)(萎)(缩)(低)(迷)(,地)(缘)(政)(治)(的)(对)(抗)(上)(升)(。经)(济)(的)(问)(题)(不)(能)(完)(全)(用)(政)(治)(的)(手)(段)(解)(决)(,因)(为)(,它)(可)(能)(会)(带)(来)(反)(噬)(的)(后)(果)(。
桌)(面)(上)(的)(筹)(码)(中)(美)(双)(方)(没)(有)(任)(何)(一)(方)(愿)(意)(处)(于)(下)(风)(或)(进)(行)(让)(步)(,双)(方)(至)(今)(在)(嘴)(上)(打)(成)(“平)(手)(”,这)(在)(很)(大)(程)(度)(上)(也)(是)(进)(行)(谈)(判)(前)(收)(集)(对)(己)(方)(有)(利)(筹)(码)(不)(可)(避)(免)(的)(结)(果)(。
见)(势)(不)(妙)(,台)(风)(突)(变)(
特)(朗)(普)(突)(然)(跟)(中)(国)(套)(近)(乎)(。特)(朗)(普)(又)(发)(推)(特)(,对)(中)(国)(展)(开)(“甜)(蜜)(攻)(势)(”.北)(京)(时)(间)(周)(日)((4月)(8日)()晚)(间)(特)(朗)(普)(发)(推)(特)(:
我)(们)(将)(永)(远)(是)(朋)(友)(,无)(论)(我)(们)(的)(贸)(易)(争)(端)(如)(何)(。中)(国)(将)(取)(消)(贸)(易)(壁)(垒)(,因)(为)(这)(是)(正)(确)(的)(做)(法)(。税)(收)(将)(会)(变)(成)(互)(惠)(的)(,中)(美)(将)(会)(在)(知)(识)(产)(权)(上)(达)(成)(协)(议)(。两)(国)(都)(会)(有)(伟)(大)(未)(来)(!”
特)(朗)(普)(发)(推)(的)(时)(间)(往)(往)(会)(在)(北)(京)(时)(间)(凌)(晨)(,而)(这)(次)(选)(择)(在)(了)(北)(京)(时)(间)(晚)(间)(8点)(左)(右)(,这)(个)(时)(段)(正)(是)(中)(国)(读)(者)(阅)(读)(高)(峰)(期)(,似)(乎)(是)(透)(露)(了)(一)(些)(诚)(意)(。
究)(其)(原)(因)(,一)(方)(面)(是)(来)(自)(国)(内)(的)(压)(力)(:美)(股)(暴)(跌)(,豆)(农)(、农)(业)(、机)(械)(、汽)(车)(、飞)(机)(行)(业)(反)(贸)(易)(战)(的)(情)(绪)(激)(烈)(,共)(和)(党)(内)(大)(佬)(的)(指)(责)(。国)(际)(方)(面)(,40多)(个)(国)(家)(,包)(括)(WTO,支)(持)(中)(国)(的)(立)(场)(。再)(一)(方)(面)(,中)(国)(方)(面)(释)(放)(了)(周)(二)(博)(鳌)(会)(上)(将)(在)(改)(革)(开)(放)(40周)(年)(之)(际)(,有)(推)(出)(一)(系)(列)(强)(调)(自)(由)(贸)(易)(、更)(加)(改)(革)(开)(放)(的)(政)(策)(的)(宣)(布)(。致)(使)(特)(朗)(普)(抢)(先)(缓)(和)(了)(态)(度)(。
互)(相)(伤)(害)(?
在)(没)(有)(更)(多)(官)(方)(消)(息)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,我)(们)(不)(妨)(重)(读)(特)(朗)(普)(当)(年)(自)(传)(《交)(易)(的)(艺)(术)(》。书)(中)(不)(乏)(经)(典)(语)(句)(,披)(露)(了)(这)(位)(商)(人)(总)(统)(的)(谈)(判)(心)(理)(,或)(可)(帮)(助)(我)(们)(读)(懂)(此)(时)(特)(朗)(普)(的)(策)(略)(。
“在)(生)(意)(场)(上)(,最)(糟)(糕)(的)(事)(情)(莫)(过)(于)(看)(上)(去)(太)(急)(切)(,那)(会)(让)(对)(方)(嗅)(到)(血)(腥)(味)(,那)(样)(他)(会)(置)(你)(于)(死)(地)(。最)(好)(的)(办)(法)(是)(用)(实)(力)(交)(易)(,你)(的)(筹)(码)(是)(最)(大)(的)(实)(力)(。一)(般)(的)(筹)(码)(是)(对)(方)(想)(要)(的)(东)(西)(,更)(好)(的)(筹)(码)(是)(对)(方)(需)(要)(的)(东)(西)(,最)(好)(的)(筹)(码)(是)(对)(方)(不)(可)(或)(缺)(的)(东)(西)(。不)(幸)(的)(是)(,现)(实)(中)(不)(总)(有)(这)(样)(的)(筹)(码)(,而)(这)(就)(需)(要)(我)(们)(用)(想)(象)(力)(和)(推)(销)(力)(去)(创)(造)(筹)(码)(。”
特)(朗)(普)(是)(希)(望)(通)(过)(一)(种)(战)(略)(上)(施)(压)(的)(态)(势)(,在)(心)(理)(和)(意)(志)(层)(面)(上)(使)(得)(中)(国)(成)(为)(按)(其)(要)(求)(行)(事)(的)(行)(为)(体)(。换)(言)(之)(,他)(这)(次)(的)(举)(动)(是)(标)(准)(的)(“讹)(诈)(战)(术)(”。而)(且)(他)(自)(我)(感)(觉)(非)(常)(好)(,他)(的)(姿)(态)(表)(明)(,他)(可)(能)(认)(为)(自)(己)(是)(一)(个)(可)(以)(像)(在)(谈)(话)(节)(目)(中)(控)(制)(局)(面)(一)(样)(控)(制)(这)(件)(事)(情)(进)(程)(的)(领)(导)(人)(。
特)(朗)(普)(最)(新)(威)(胁)(的)(1000亿)(关)(税)(也)(是)(他)(惯)(用)(的)(谈)(判)(伎)(俩)(。美)(国)(人)(把)(这)(种)(做)(法)(叫)(做)(playchicken即)(“看)(谁)(先)(躲)(开)(”游)(戏)(,意)(思)(是)(贸)(易)(战)(就)(像)(两)(辆)(相)(向)(而)(行)(的)(疾)(驰)(的)(汽)(车)(,两)(位)(司)(机)(都)(知)(道)(如)(何)(不)(减)(速)(相)(撞)(后)(果)(两)(败)(俱)(伤)(。在)(相)(撞)(前)(都)(在)(喊)(话)(威)(胁)(,为)(躲)(开)(前)(的)(谈)(判)(争)(取)(到)(最)(好)(的)(筹)(码)(。有)(时)(这)(就)(像)(两)(个)(拳)(击)(手)(在)(打)(拳)(击)(,一)(方)(虚)(张)(声)(势)(,高)(举)(双)(手)(,似)(乎)(正)(要)(一)(拳)(迎)(面)(打)(来)(;这)(时)(,另)(一)(方)(正)(确)(的)(举)(措)(是)(,很)(清)(晰)(准)(确)(地)(在)(对)(方)(的)(鼻)(子)(上)(来)(一)(个)(刺)(拳)(,打)(得)(他)(满)(脸)(流)(鼻)(血)(。也)(许)(这)(一)(拳)(不)(是)(很)(重)(,但)(是)(要)(清)(晰)(地)(让)(对)(面)(感)(受)(到)(疼)(痛)(,显)(示)(出)(自)(己)(有)(还)(击)(的)(能)(力)(,并)(提)(醒)(对)(面)(,你)(对)(疼)(痛)(的)(耐)(受)(力)(并)(没)(有)(你)(想)(象)(中)(那)(么)(高)(。
礼)(之)(用)(,和)(为)(贵)(
截)(止)(目)(前)(,中)(国)(透)(露)(的)(信)(号)(是)(“美)(国)(要)(打)(贸)(易)(战)(,中)(国)(不)(怕)(。美)(国)(要)(谈)(,中)(国)(也)(会)(谈)(”。中)(国)(以)(战)(止)(战)(的)(策)(略)(似)(乎)(打)(乱)(了)(特)(朗)(普)(的)(步)(骤)(,原)(本)(他)(认)(为)(中)(国)(会)(率)(先)(退)(让)(。在)(本)(次)(较)(量)(中)(,让)(美)(国)(大)(感)(意)(外)(的)(是)(——中)(国)(更)(为)(迅)(速)(和)(强)(硬)(。所)(以)(特)(朗)(普)(现)(在)(最)(希)(望)(的)(是)(寻)(求)(谈)(判)(。
如)(果)(出)(现)(了)(这)(种)(局)(面)(,就)(可)(避)(免)(贸)(易)(战)(的)(双)(输)(局)(面)(,变)(为)(双)(赢)(。当)(然)(,后)(续)(的)(事)(情)(如)(何)(发)(展)(,会)(有)(什)(么)(反)(复)(,还)(需)(走)(起)(来)(看)(。但)(他)(既)(然)(说)(了)(“永)(远)(是)(好)(朋)(友)(”、“中)(美)(两)(国)(一)(定)(都)(会)(有)(美)(好)(的)(未)(来)(”,那)(么)(,至)(少)(可)(维)(持)(中)(美)(斗)(而)(不)(破)(的)(局)(面)(,是)(以)(战)(促)(和)(的)(结)(果)(,对)(两)(国)(人)(民)(和)(世)(界)(经)(济)(,都)(是)(有)(利)(的)(,对)(全)(球)(股)(市)(投)(资)(者)(都)(是)(有)(利)(的)(。
作)(为)(当)(今)(世)(界)(上)(最)(互)(补)(,也)(是)(能)(相)(互)(摧)(毁)(的)(两)(个)(大)(国)(,相)(信)(双)(方)(都)(不)(会)(傻)(到)(,相)(互)(伤)(害)(到)(无)(限)(。
贸)(易)(战)(最)(终)(会)(局)(限)(在)(一)(些)(中)(小)(规)(模)(的)(互)(怼)(上)(,打)(打)(谈)(谈)(,最)(后)(相)(互)(给)(对)(方)(留)(出)(一)(定)(的)(边)(界)(。所)(以)(,一)(个)(可)(控)(的)(终)(局)(,是)(最)(大)(的)(概)(率)(。或)(许)(我)(们)(可)(以)(更)(多)(的)(体)(会)(《论)(语)(》:“礼)(之)(用)(,和)(为)(贵)(。”中)(孔)(子)(的)(良)(苦)(用)(心)(。
想)(要)(获)(取)(贸)(易)(战)(对)(市)(场)(影)(响)(以)(及)(投)(资)(机)(会)(,添)(加)(微)(信)(公)(众)(号)(:远)(见)(财)(讯)(,回)(复)(“观)(点)(”即)(可)(获)(得)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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